Russia has initiated a large-scale withdrawal of military forces and equipment from Syria, following the removal of Bashar al-Assad. This withdrawal raises questions about Russia’s future strategic presence in Syria while facilitating U.S. military operations against ISIS in the region. The process involves relocating assets to Libya and engaging with rebel factions to evaluate potential negotiation avenues.
According to U.S. and Western officials, Russia has commenced a significant withdrawal of military personnel and equipment from Syria following the expulsion of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This operation is described as large-scale, having started last week, though it remains uncertain whether it is a permanent decision. Intelligence assessments reveal that Russian officials are evaluating the willingness of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the dominant rebel faction in Syria, to negotiate an arrangement that would permit Russian forces to retain control over crucial bases, such as the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia and the Tartus naval facility.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed ongoing communication with the rebels in Damascus, emphasizing the importance of maintaining contact with entities in control of the situation, considering Russia’s interests in the region. Reports indicate that Russia is transferring naval assets from Syria to Libya while intensifying pressure on Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar for securing control over a port in Benghazi. Without a port in Libya or the ability to operate from Tartus, Russia would face significant limitations in projecting its influence in the Mediterranean.
Recent satellite images suggested that Russia is preparing to evacuate military hardware from its operational bases in Syria. Observations at Khmeimim airbase indicated the presence of heavy military transport aircraft, in addition to a dismantled Ka-52 attack helicopter and components of an S-400 air defense system being readied for transport. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has refrained from commenting on the reported Russian withdrawal; however, Pentagon officials noted a renewed capacity for anti-ISIS operations in Syria, attributed to the reduction of Russian air defenses in the region.
The recent changes in airspace conditions have significantly facilitated U.S. military operations against ISIS targets in Syria. As U.S. Central Command continues to conduct airstrikes on ISIS facilities and personnel, the absence of active Russian air defenses allows for greater operational flexibility.
The Russian military’s involvement in Syria has been a critical aspect of the ongoing civil conflict, supporting the Assad regime against various opposition groups. The dynamics shifted with Assad’s ouster, leading to speculation about Russia’s long-term military presence in the region. The transfer of Russian assets and dialogue with rebel leaders indicates strategic reconsiderations regarding Russia’s role and influence in Syria and neighboring regions, including Libya. Such developments also impact the geopolitical landscape concerning NATO and U.S. operations in the area, especially in relation to counteracting ISIS.
In conclusion, Russia’s recent military withdrawal from Syria represents a significant shift in the regional power balance, driven by changing circumstances following the ouster of Assad. As the Kremlin assesses its strategic interests, the potential for negotiations with rebel factions could determine the future of Russian military bases in Syria. The impact of these developments extends to U.S. operations against ISIS, which have become more feasible in the current landscape devoid of Russian air defenses, highlighting the evolving dynamics of the Syrian conflict and regional security.
Original Source: www.cnn.com
