AccuWeather forecasts a near to above average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, predicting 13-18 named storms and urging residents of the Virgin Islands to prepare. Factors influencing the forecast include sea temperatures, ENSO conditions, and historical context. The importance of being prepared for potential hurricane impacts is emphasized.
AccuWeather has announced its forecast for the upcoming 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a “near to above average” outlook. Residents of the Virgin Islands are encouraged to prepare and stay informed about potential risks as the season spans from June 1 to November 30. The forecast anticipates an increase in the number of named storms and impacts to the United States.
According to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, the forecast estimates between 13 to 18 named storms, including 7 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater. Furthermore, there is a 20 percent chance of exceeding 18 named storms throughout the year.
Key factors influencing this forecast include unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the position of the Bermuda-Azores High, and the likelihood of tropical waves originating off the west coast of Africa. These elements are crucial in shaping the development and trajectory of potential storms.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a significant role in tropical storm formation. During La Niña conditions, global ocean temperatures can cool dramatically, often leading to reduced wind shear in the Atlantic. Conversely, during El Niño events, increased wind shear can suppress hurricane activity. The ENSO-neutral phase may occur at different points throughout the hurricane season, potentially impacting storm development.
Alex DaSilva elaborated on the potentially favorable conditions for cyclone formation during the neutral ENSO phase. He indicated that while La Niña years tend to yield higher storm counts, ENSO-neutral phases can still contribute to an active hurricane season, albeit marginally.
DaSilva noted that the unique patterns of wind conducive to storm formation may persist this season, explaining that La Niña may still be a factor early on. He projected either an ENSO-neutral status or a mild La Niña condition could dominate the season.
The analysis conducted by AccuWeather scientists draws from past years exhibiting similar atmospheric conditions. DaSilva referenced that 2025 bears resemblance to the 2017 season, which was notably devastating due to storms such as Irma and Maria. Historical context is part of the forecasting process to identify regions potentially vulnerable to hurricane impacts.
In light of this, DaSilva emphasized the importance of preparedness, urging residents of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands to have robust hurricane plans. He highlighted that complacency may arise from years without significant hurricane activity, yet storms can still pose challenges, even from considerable distances.
Upcoming forecasts will provide further updates as the start of the hurricane season approaches. Despite the official season commencement on June 1, tropical formations can develop at any time. Residents should regularly consult the VITEMA website and National Weather Service for updated weather and emergency information.
The AccuWeather forecast predicts a near to above average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, advising residents of the Virgin Islands to remain vigilant and prepared. Key influencing factors include warm ocean temperatures, ENSO conditions, and historical analog years providing insight into potential impact. The need for readiness is paramount, given the unpredictable nature of hurricanes. Individuals are encouraged to stay informed as the season approaches.
Original Source: stcroixsource.com
