Tropical Cyclone Courtney has formed as a Category 1 cyclone, marking the eighth cyclone of the Australian season. Following a slow development, it is projected to move rapidly west but will likely not impact the Cocos Islands or the mainland directly. The season has seen a notable increase in severe cyclones, driven by warm sea temperatures, with further risks anticipated due to active monsoonal conditions.
Tropical Cyclone Courtney, which developed on the morning of March 26, is classified as a Category 1 cyclone and is the eighth tropical cyclone of Australia’s season. Initially moving slowly from a tropical low south of Bali over the weekend, it has since tracked west-southwest. By early Wednesday, Courtney was situated nearly 900 kilometers northwest of Exmouth.
The Bureau of Meteorology has reported that Tropical Cyclone Courtney is expected to move rapidly to the west, influenced by a high-pressure ridge to the south. While projections indicate that it may approach within 500 kilometers south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands by Friday, it is not anticipated to impact the islands or continental Australia directly.
This year’s tropical cyclone season in Australia has seen an unusual surge in activity. Following Tropical Cyclone Robyn’s formation in late November, the season remained lethargic until mid-January, when six of the current eight tropical cyclones intensified, with all reaching Category 3 or higher. This reflects a significant increase, as approximately 75% of cyclones this season have been severe, notably including Cyclones Zelia and Alfred.
The combination of an active tropical season and exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in the region has contributed to the heightened cyclone activity, with records noting unusually high temperatures from October 2024 to February 2025. This warming is shown to have significantly fueled cyclone intensity.
The ongoing monsoon in northern Australia, intensified by a strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), suggests that additional systems may develop. A cluster of convective clouds near the northwest Kimberley coast is predicted to become more organized and potentially form tropical low 28U over the next few days. However, the system’s proximity to land could limit its intensification before making landfall, which is expected to occur around Saturday.
Regardless of tropical low 28U’s development into a cyclone, the associated moist monsoonal winds will likely cause extensive rainfall, with projected accumulations ranging from 100 to 200mm across the Kimberley area, and localized regions possibly seeing up to 400mm.
As the MJO weakens and moves northeast in early April, the potential for further significant cyclone development may reduce, although cyclones can still form throughout the year. Current modeling indicates that another MJO event could arise later in April.
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In conclusion, Tropical Cyclone Courtney marks a significant development in the Australian tropical cyclone season, demonstrating an uptick in severe weather patterns. The uniqueness of this season is underscored by an unusual concentration of high-intensity cyclones correlated with record warm sea surface temperatures. Furthermore, ongoing monsoonal activity in the region suggests continued risks for cyclonic developments. DTN APAC remains committed to providing essential weather intelligence and support to navigate these challenges effectively.
Original Source: apac.dtn.com
