Ghassan Ibrahim expresses cautious optimism for Syria’s transitional government four months post-Assad, emphasizing significant challenges like economic collapse and a skilled exodus. Recent foreign visits by President Al-Sharaa aim for regional reintegration. Yet, ongoing violence and Iran’s destabilizing influence complicate the path forward. Sanctions hinder governance, raising concerns of unrest if conditions do not improve. The situation remains delicate, as Syria seeks stability and broader normalization with international powers, including Israel.
In an analysis of the evolving dynamics in Syria, Ghassan Ibrahim, a Syria expert based in London, expressed cautious optimism regarding the transitional government’s progress four months after the exit of President Bashar Assad. During the “Frankly Speaking” program, Ibrahim highlighted significant challenges such as institutional collapse, economic paralysis, and a mass exodus of skilled professionals. He stated, “The situation in Syria is not that easy,” emphasizing the need for resources to revitalize government functions.
Over 90% of Syrians reportedly live below the poverty line, with infrastructure inadequately functioning. Ibrahim underscored a significant loss of human capital due to the brain drain over the past 14 years, stating, “There is not any good environment to tell to the people come back — especially the talented ones.” Despite these obstacles, the absence of widespread sectarian violence post-Assad was hailed as an achievement, although localized tensions persist.
Ibrahim noted that President Ahmad Al-Sharaa’s diplomatic engagements, particularly his recent visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are pivotal for Syria’s reintegration within the region. He observed that such visits convey Syria’s desire for stability and productive alliances, stating that “Syria will be productive and active and be part of this kind of alliance between the regional powers.”
Looking ahead, Ibrahim acknowledged potential conflicts, particularly with Israel, as southern Syria experiences increased airstrikes. However, the new leadership is striving to foster a state-centric approach rather than acting as a militia. According to him, there is a growing recognition in Damascus that stability with Israel would be beneficial, underscoring that “stability with Israel is preferable to brinkmanship.”
Iran’s influence remains a concern for the new government. Ibrahim warned that Iran is still supporting militias in Syria, yet its sway is diminishing, resulting in a desire for normalization between Syria and Iran. He argued against the current sanctions imposed by the US and Europe, which he claimed hinder the new administration’s effectiveness, stating, “the sanctions now are literally just hurting ordinary Syrian people.”
Recent violence in regions like Latakia highlights the fragility of the situation, revealing tensions left over from Assad’s regime. Ibrahim commented on President Al-Sharaa’s strategy for reconciliation, recognizing that it may lead to unintended consequences, such as enabling revenge killings. The diversified cabinet composition has also faced scrutiny, reflecting the delicate balance that Al-Sharaa is attempting to maintain.
Ibrahim outlined that Syria is attempting to mediate between Turkiye and Kurdish factions, potentially to avert further conflicts. Furthermore, while pursuing foreign relations, Syria aims to maintain its partnership with Russia, which is seen as a pragmatic ally able to facilitate dialogues, especially with Israel.
Concluding his remarks, Ibrahim emphasized a shift in rhetoric towards normalization with Israel, noting that Al-Sharaa’s language represents a break from the past. He encapsulated the aspirations of Syrians for a future characterized by peace and opportunities for development, stating, “All Syrians are looking at their country as a hub for stability and development.”
In summary, the current political landscape in Syria is defined by cautious optimism amid substantial challenges. The transitional government must navigate economic hardships, institutional disarray, and a fraught security environment. Key diplomatic efforts are underway to foster regional alliances, stabilizing the nation amidst lingering threats, particularly from Iran and entrenched sectarian tensions. Both the new government and the international community face crucial decisions to shape Syria’s future towards normalization and stability, ultimately reflecting aspirations for peace and development.
Original Source: www.arabnews.pk
