India is expected to experience a normal monsoon this June to September, aided by the absence of El Niño conditions. The IMD will soon release its initial predictions, and if forecasts hold, it will mark a second consecutive year of normal rainfall after a below-normal 2023. Accurate monsoon rains are vital for agriculture, impacting key crops and water supply.
India is anticipated to experience a ‘normal’ south-west monsoon this year, as indicated by a reputable weather scientist. Citing global forecasts, Akshay Deoras, a research scientist with the National Centre for Atmosphere Science at the University of Reading, stated that forecasts from the UK Met Office, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts suggest an overall average to above-average rainfall during the June to September monsoon season.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is preparing to release its initial monsoon predictions shortly. If the forecasts from international agencies hold true, this year would mark the second consecutive year of normal monsoon conditions following a below-normal season in 2023. Typically, the southwest monsoon accounts for approximately 70 to 75% of India’s yearly precipitation, significantly enhancing crop yields and water reservoir levels.
According to Deoras, the models predict a generally normal monsoon, with key support stemming from the lack of adverse effects related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. He cautioned that while the rainfall pattern is likely to be typical, it remains premature to ascertain whether the monsoon’s onset in Kerala and its subsequent progression will be on schedule.
The IMD recently noted a 75% chance of a transition to a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation by April 2025, a condition which is expected to help ensure a stable monsoon this season. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD, remarked, “El Niño condition is ruled out during monsoon season this year.” Additionally, the forecast indicates that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions may prevail throughout the upcoming monsoon.
The previous year, 2024, witnessed an 8% increase in rainfall compared to the long-period average, categorizing it as ‘above normal.’ However, the monsoon in 2023 was characterized by below normal and patchy rainfall despite earlier predictions of normality by the weather department. It is noteworthy that nearly half of India’s agricultural land relies on these monsoon rains for the cultivation of kharif crops, such as paddy, pulses, and oilseeds, and that sufficient rainfall is essential for sowing rabi crops, including wheat, pulses, and oilseeds.
Traditionally, the southwest monsoon arrives in Kerala by June 1, extending nationwide by the first week of July, and begins to withdraw from northern India by mid-September, completely receding by October 15.
In summary, predictions for the upcoming monsoon season in India indicate a likely normal rainfall pattern, bolstered by the absence of El Niño effects. The impending forecasts from both the IMD and international agencies suggest an encouraging outlook for agricultural output and water resource levels, which are crucial for the nation’s economy. The importance of these rains cannot be overstated, as they directly impact both kharif and rabi crop cultivation, thus underscoring the significance of accurate and timely weather predictions.
Original Source: www.financialexpress.com
