On March 29, 2025, Myanmar experienced a powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake that caused significant devastation and loss of life, reigniting discussions about the anticipated ‘Big One.’ Historically, the largest recorded earthquake occurred in Chile in 1960, while current scientific focus is shifting towards the Cascadia Subduction Zone as a likely site for a major quake impacting millions. Additionally, potential seismic threats exist in regions such as India and the Philippines, emphasizing the widespread danger posed by earthquakes.
On March 29, 2025, Myanmar experienced a catastrophic earthquake with a magnitude of 7.7. This event resulted in substantial destruction, loss of life, and affected neighboring nations such as Thailand. The quake served as a critical reminder of the unpredictable nature of seismic activity and emphasized the importance of preparedness for such disasters. It also reignited talks about the anticipated major earthquake known as ‘The Big One.’
Historically, the largest documented earthquake occurred in Chile in 1960, known as the Valdivia Earthquake, which reached a magnitude of 9.4-9.6 on the Richter scale. This disaster lasted approximately 10 minutes, generating devastating tsunami waves that impacted several countries, including Hawaii, Japan, and New Zealand. The death toll from this cataclysm remains uncertain, estimated between 1,000 and 6,000.
The Indian Ocean earthquake and subsequent tsunami on December 26, 2004, measured 9.2-9.3, claiming over 200,000 lives across multiple nations. Additionally, the Tohoku-Sendai earthquake in Japan on March 11, 2011, which measured 9.1, wreaked havoc, particularly affecting the Fukushima Nuclear Plant.
Culturally, ‘The Big One’ refers to a potential massive earthquake expected along the San Andreas Fault in California. This term emerged from a 1953 paper by geologists Mason Hill and Thomas Dibblee, who noted the earthquake risk along this extensive fault line. Predictions suggest possible earthquake magnitudes of 7-8, capable of devastating major urban areas such as Los Angeles and San Francisco.
The concept of The Big One has been popularized through various films, including “Earthquake” (1974) which debuted new technology that simulated tremors. Further cinematic portrayals surfaced with “The Big One: The Great Los Angeles Earthquake” and the 2015 film “San Andreas,” which depicted the destruction an earthquake would cause in California.
Recent geological research has shifted focus from the San Andreas Fault to the Cascadia Subduction Zone, extending from Vancouver to Northern California. Experts, including Brian Atwater and Chris Goldfinger, anticipate an imminent earthquake with a magnitude between 8 and 9.2, capable of affecting major cities in the U.S. and Canada, posing significant risks to millions.
Predictions indicate that casualties could reach tens of thousands with widespread homelessness and large-scale infrastructural damage. Due to potential disruptions to communication and transportation networks, rescue operations might be severely hampered in affected regions, further complicating relief efforts.
While geologists assert that The Big One will inevitably occur, consensus on the timing remains elusive. According to Oregon State University’s Chris Goldfinger, there is a 37 percent likelihood of a major earthquake occurring by 2060. Historical records indicate that the last significant quake in Cascadia took place in the early 1700s, with devastating effects reaching Japan.
In addition to the anticipated seismic activity in the United States, some experts express concerns regarding potential earthquakes in India, particularly in the Himalayas, expecting considerable devastation in populous areas such as Delhi and Chandigarh. Similarly, the Marikina Valley fault system in the Philippines is also at risk, with a possible earthquake measuring 7 on the Richter scale projected to lead to severe casualties. Despite the absence of specific timelines, the potential for these disasters looms ominously.
In summary, the recent earthquake in Myanmar underscores the urgent need for preparedness in seismically active regions. The looming threat of ‘The Big One’ continues to concern scientists and the public alike, particularly focusing on the Cascadia Subduction Zone as a probable epicenter for future devastating quakes. Furthermore, the prospect of significant seismic events in the Himalayas and the Philippines illustrates that the potential for catastrophic earthquake-related disasters extends beyond the borders of the United States.
Original Source: indianexpress.com
