A tropical low is forming off the WA coast, with the potential to develop into a cyclone named Courtney or Dianne. The BOM reports heightened cyclone activity this year, confirming nine cyclones since December. Heavy rains are forecast across northern Australia due to the influx of humid air, with anticipated flooding risks as the wet season progresses.
A tropical low is expected to form off the Western Australia (WA) coast by Friday, with the potential to become a cyclone. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) reported the highest number of tropical cyclones in three years, totaling nine since December. If the developing low intensifies, it could be named Courtney or Dianne, depending on another system evaluated near the Cocos Islands.
As humid air moves south, heavy rains are anticipated across northern Australia in the coming weeks, already impacting regions like Queensland, where Townsville received 301 millimeters of rain recently. The Northern Territory (NT) and WA’s Kimberley region are also likely to experience increased precipitation as the monsoon trough re-establishes.
The monsoon trough, characterized by moist converging winds, is primarily responsible for forming tropical cyclones. This week, a tropical low developed near the Cocos Islands but poses no threat to the mainland. The anticipated low is projected to move toward the coast over warm waters, potentially reaching cyclone strength this weekend.
The BOM indicates that the system currently has a low 10% chance of intensifying, with predictions showing a gradual increase in probability, possibly peaking at 30% along the Pilbara coast. The system’s trajectory currently suggests a westward path parallel to the coast, although cyclone forecasting remains challenging.
Northern and central Australia are experiencing increased rainfall due to tropical moisture inland. Over the past week, areas like Garradunga received up to 872mm, leading to flooding along rivers. Rain has also spread inland, reaching parts of northern Queensland.
Forecasts predict that rain will persist into next week, with significant accumulations expected across northern Australia, specifically the Kimberley and central areas. Long-term predictions indicate that above-average rain may continue into early April, accompanied by an increase in cyclone activity as the wet season persists.
Data suggests that additional storms this autumn could elevate the season’s total to a 19-year high, reflecting an intensification of cyclone activity not seen in recent years. This upcoming cyclone season poses considerable potential for severe weather conditions and significant rainfall across Australia’s northern regions.
In conclusion, the impending formation of a tropical low off the Western Australia coast could lead to increased cyclone activity, with a potential for heavy rainfall impacting northern Australia. Recent patterns indicate a busy cyclone season, with predictions of above-average rain and potential flooding. The tropical low may become significant, warranting close monitoring of its trajectory and intensification as it approaches the coast.
Original Source: www.abc.net.au
