In February 2025, extreme flooding in southern Botswana and eastern South Africa resulted in 31 deaths and the displacement of 5,000 people. A study by international scientists investigated the role of climate change in exacerbating the heavy rainfall that led to these floods. It concluded that urban infrastructure inadequacies significantly contributed to the impacts experienced, emphasizing the need for resilience improvement through strategic urban planning and upgraded infrastructure.
In February 2025, a severe flooding event impacted southern Botswana and eastern South Africa, resulting in the tragic loss of at least 31 lives, including nine in Gaborone. The floods displaced approximately 5,000 people, severely disrupted traffic, closed major ports, and temporarily shuttered schools in Botswana. Emergency services scrambled as numerous areas became isolated due to the deluge that occurred between February 16 and February 20.
A multinational team of scientists conducted an analysis of this catastrophic event to explore the influence of human-induced climate change on rainfall intensity. They focused on the maximum accumulated rainfall over five days during the peak of the flooding, using data from weather observations dating back to 1950 to determine trends correlating with the current climate warming.
Urbanized areas like Gaborone are particularly vulnerable to floods exacerbated by high-intensity rainfall and inadequate drainage systems that have failed to keep pace with population growth. It was noted that the climate has warmed by 1.3 °C, making the heavy rainfall event of February 2025 rare, expected once every 10 to 200 years, based on different data sources.
The findings indicated that heavy rainfall events like the one in February 2025 are significantly less probable in a cooler climate; an estimated 60% increase in intensity is attributable to current warming trends. However, varying climate models produced inconsistent results regarding the changes in extreme rainfall frequency and intensity, making precise quantification of climate change’s role challenging.
Projecting to a warmer climate of 2.6 °C relative to preindustrial levels indicates a likely increase in the magnitude of heavy rainfall events beyond 2025. Combining historical trends, moisture retention capabilities of warmer air, and the majority model projections under increasing temperatures suggests that human-induced climate change significantly amplified the rainfall responsible for the flooding, although the extent remains uncertain.
The flooding underscored vulnerabilities in urban infrastructure, which were insufficient to manage such extreme weather events, leading to overwhelmed roads and health clinics. Initiatives to enhance flood resilience include improving drainage systems, implementing land-use regulations, and upgrading infrastructure. A holistic approach incorporating hazard assessments and robust early warning systems is vital for fostering resilience against future extreme weather occurrences.
The severe floods in February 2025 in southern Botswana and eastern South Africa highlight the critical interplay between climate change and urban infrastructure vulnerabilities. While human-induced climate change appears to have intensified rainfall events, precise quantification remains elusive. The need for improved resilience through upgraded drainage systems, regulated land-use, and enhanced disaster preparedness is paramount to mitigate the effects of future extreme weather events. Considering the tragic loss of life and displacement caused by these floods, a comprehensive strategy addressing infrastructure deficiencies and integrating multi-hazard approaches into urban planning is essential for safeguarding communities against similar occurrences in the future.
Original Source: www.preventionweb.net
