Heavy rainfall in February 2025 caused severe flooding in southern Botswana and eastern South Africa, resulting in 31 fatalities and the displacement of 5,000 individuals. Research indicates that human-induced climate change likely intensified the extreme rainfall events. Urban infrastructure inadequacies contributed to the disaster impacts, prompting the need for enhanced resilience measures, such as improved drainage systems and stricter land-use regulations.
In mid-February 2025, southern Botswana and eastern South Africa experienced severe flooding due to heavy rainfall, resulting in at least 31 fatalities, including 22 in KwaZulu-Natal and nine in Gaborone, where six children were among those lost. Approximately 5,000 individuals were displaced, and flooding caused widespread disruption, cutting off access to communities and forcing the closure of ports and schools. Emergency services faced significant challenges in responding to the chaos caused by the disaster.
A multidisciplinary team of scientists from Botswana, South Africa, Denmark, Mexico, Austria, Sweden, the Netherlands, the United States, and the United Kingdom analyzed the extreme rainfall event to assess the implications of climate change on its intensity. Their focus involved examining the five-day maximum rainfall that precipitated the flooding, highlighting the persistent vulnerabilities linked to urbanization and climate change across both countries.
Gaborone often experiences flooding during the rainy season, exacerbated by high-intensity rainfall that overwhelms drainage systems. The city’s infrastructural changes have not kept pace with rising population densities, resulting in low-lying areas being particularly prone to severe weather events. The study revealed that the February 2025 heavy rainfall event is considered a rare incident, anticipated to occur every 10 to 200 years with a 2-3% chance each year.
Analysis of data indicated that such extreme rainfall events would have been uncommon under a colder climate scenario, estimating a 60% increase in intensity corresponding to current warming trends. However, the role of human-induced climate change in altering rainfall characteristics remained challenging to quantify, with climate models providing variable outcomes concerning rainfall events. Key findings suggested that under a warming scenario of 2.6 °C, most models pointed to increased rainfall magnitude compared to 2025.
Despite uncertainties, it was concluded that human-induced climate change has likely contributed to the elevated rainfall leading to the recent flooding. Historical trends and the capacity of warmer air to retain more water substantiate the correlation between climate change and flooding severity. Infrastructure inadequacies further amplified the event’s impacts, magnifying the risks in urban settings historically vulnerable to flooding.
Current efforts are underway to bolster flood resilience, emphasizing the importance of improved drainage systems, strict land-use regulations, and disaster preparedness initiatives. By expanding drainage capacities, enforcing zoning to prevent construction in high-risk areas, and upgrading essential infrastructure, communities can enhance their resilience against both current and future climate challenges. Integrating multi-hazard assessments into urban planning and developing stronger early warning systems remain essential strategies to mitigate the impacts of future extreme weather events.
The recent flooding in Gaborone and surrounding regions has underscored the significant interplay between extreme weather events and human-induced climate change, highlighting urban infrastructure vulnerabilities exacerbated by rapid urbanization. While climate change has amplified the frequency and intensity of rainfall, considerable efforts are necessary to strengthen infrastructure resilience and implement effective disaster preparedness strategies. The outcomes involve a comprehensive approach towards sustainable urban development, addressing the needs of affected communities, while ensuring the ability to withstand future climate-related challenges.
Original Source: www.worldweatherattribution.org
