Syria is witnessing increased violence from Assad loyalists, yet this does not signal an impending civil war. Despite concerns over escalating sectarian tensions, the new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has opportunities to stabilize the nation through economic reforms and respect for minority rights. The geopolitical implications involving foreign powers and their interests complicate the situation.
Recent violence in Syria, characterized by a resurgence of attacks from loyalists of former President Bashar al-Assad, has raised alarms regarding the potential rekindling of sectarian warfare. However, while these events are alarming, there remains a pathway for the new leadership, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, to achieve stability amidst this turmoil.
Since the overthrow of the Assad regime last December, the violence, including numerous civilian casualties, has intensified. Many Assad loyalists, especially Alawites concentrated in regions near Latakia, have retaliated against the new regime. This unrest has been exacerbated by reports of Iranian involvement, as al-Sharaa’s forces have countered the loyalists with significant military action, resulting in indiscriminate violence and fatalities.
Despite the turmoil, the potential for a new civil war appears limited. The significant unpopularity of the Assad loyalists, stemming from decades of brutal repression, suggests that their support is waning. However, the al-Sharaa administration must tread carefully, as insufficient economic reforms or the imposition of strict Islamic law could galvanize opposition and undermine their authority.
Fortunately, al-Sharaa appears to recognize these challenges. He has sought economic support from neighboring states and has publicly committed to protecting minority rights. Yet, his motives remain ambiguous — whether his statements reflect genuine intentions or strategic posturing to gain Western approval is uncertain.
Concerns over possible external interference persist, particularly regarding Iran’s interest in supporting dissent against the al-Sharaa regime. Russia’s stance, favoring al-Sharaa’s failure, and the hesitance of major Arab states to engage in additional conflicts signal the complex geopolitical dynamics at play.
The United States has shown a reluctance to intervene directly in what they consider a non-American conflict. Nonetheless, an agreement has been signed between Damascus and the U.S.-aligned Syrian Democratic Forces aimed at unifying military efforts in Syria, indicating some degree of international engagement.
Turkey’s role remains significant, driven by its interests in regional stability and countering Kurdish nationalism. Establishing a favorable regime in Damascus aligns with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s broader geopolitical ambitions in the Middle East.
In summary, while Syria currently experiences heightened violence from Assad loyalists, this situation does not yet indicate the onset of a new civil war. The unpopularity of the loyalists and the cautiously progressive stance of al-Sharaa provide a basis for potential stability. Nevertheless, the risks posed by economic discontent, sectarian tensions, and foreign intervention remain crucial factors that the new leadership must navigate carefully.
Original Source: www.cfr.org
