A new study reveals that heavy rainfall events in Kenya are increasing due to climate change, leading to more frequent flooding and extreme weather conditions. The Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts erratic rainfall patterns which could profoundly impact agriculture, infrastructure, and public health, highlighting the urgency for enhanced disaster preparedness.
Recent climate research highlights an impending increase in heavy rainfall events in Kenya, indicating that extreme precipitation will occur more frequently due to global warming. A study published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) indicates that heightened greenhouse gas emissions will result in more intense and frequent heavy rainfall events, with potential repercussions for agriculture and infrastructure.
The study warns of an anticipated increase in flooding risk as East Africa faces shifts in rainfall patterns. Seasonal forecasts by the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) predict erratic and extreme rainfall during the March-April-May (MAM) season, aligning with the research findings. According to KMD, parts of western Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin may experience near-to-above-average rainfall, whereas northeastern regions are expected to see below-average precipitation.
Contrasting forecasts between regions indicate some areas will suffer from rainfall deficits, while rainfall, when it occurs, is projected to be more intense. This discrepancy could pose significant threats to agriculture and livestock production, as stated in the study. Extreme rainfall events could lead to flash floods, displacing communities and worsening public health issues related to waterborne diseases.
Past experiences of rainfall variability in Kenya have resulted in devastating impacts from alternating droughts and floods, evidenced by the floods that displaced thousands in 2024. Although some regions are predicted to face drought challenges, others are experiencing a heightened risk of flooding. The study also highlights that regions such as parts of Somalia and northern Kenya may experience a neutral or slight decline in drought risk, while areas like Tanzania may see intensified drought conditions.
The Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts warmer-than-normal temperatures throughout the country, particularly in coastal and northern areas. The combination of increased heat and heavy rainfall may exacerbate evaporation rates, leading to more severe storms. In light of these shifting rainfall patterns, authorities emphasize the need for early preparedness and enhanced disaster response strategies to mitigate associated risks.
The climatic study reveals critical insights into the evolving rainfall patterns in Kenya, underscoring the heightened risk of extreme precipitation and flooding. As climate change accelerates, it is imperative that regional authorities implement effective disaster preparedness and response mechanisms to address the anticipated impacts on agriculture, infrastructure, and communities.
Original Source: www.kenyans.co.ke
