The January 30, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report highlights two active systems: Cyclone 11S, struggling against adverse conditions, and Cyclone 12S (Elvis), which may transition into an extratropical system. Additionally, two invest systems show potential for development but remain unlikely to reach significant intensity soon.
On January 30, 2025, the Pacific Disaster Center reported on the current tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Two active cyclones, Tropical Cyclone 11S and Tropical Cyclone 12S (Elvis), were highlighted. The report indicated no active cyclones in the Northeast and Central Pacific, where routine reports will resume in 2025. Cyclone 11S is struggling against adverse conditions, while Cyclone 12S shows potential for significant development before transitioning to an extratropical system.
Tropical Cyclone 11S is situated approximately 590 nautical miles south-southwest of Diego Garcia, with sustained winds at 35 knots. It faces strong easterly shear and dry air intrusion, impeding its development. The forecast suggests it will track westward and could intensify after 48 hours as conditions become more favorable near Madagascar.
Tropical Cyclone 12S (Elvis), located around 619 nautical miles east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius, has winds of 40 knots. Although it initially shows signs of strengthening, increasing shear will likely hinder further development. Elvis is expected to undergo extratropical transition within 48 hours, morphing into a gale-force extratropical low.
In the Southwest Pacific, Invest 96P, located southeast of Cairns, Australia, presents a poorly defined low-level circulation with weak convection. Despite some favorable conditions, the potential for significant cyclone development within 24 hours remains low. Conversely, Invest 99S, south-southwest of Christmas Island, shows more organization amidst fragmented banding, with some promise for consolidation going forward, although significant development in 24 hours is also considered low.
In conclusion, the current cyclone activity includes two noteworthy systems, Cyclone 11S and Cyclone 12S (Elvis), facing challenging atmospheric conditions. Both invest systems, namely Invest 96P and Invest 99S, show signs of development but are not expected to reach significant intensity imminently. Continuous monitoring will be essential as conditions evolve over the coming days.
Tropical cyclone activity refers to the atmospheric phenomena characterized by rotating storm systems originating over warm waters. These systems can develop into cyclones or hurricanes under certain environmental conditions, including warm sea surface temperatures, humidity, and favorable wind patterns. Understanding the behavior and trajectory of these storms is crucial for forecasting and disaster preparedness, especially in affected regions. This report encompasses the latest observations on tropical cyclones, particularly focusing on the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Pacific Disaster Center is an authoritative source for monitoring and reporting on weather systems, including tropical cyclones. Their detailed reports provide vital updates on storm intensity, location, and expected movement, helping guide response efforts in the event of severe weather. The current report outlines the status of two active tropical cyclones while also highlighting the phases of two invest systems, which are potential tropical cyclones under observation.
The Tropical Cyclone Activity Report outlines ongoing monitoring efforts for cyclones in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Cyclone 11S struggles to maintain strength under adverse conditions, while Elvis demonstrates differing degrees of robustness before transitioning. The invest systems, although showing some organizational structure, are not expected to evolve into significant cyclones soon. Continuous observation remains vital as conditions could shift, influencing cyclone intensity and trajectories.
Original Source: www.pdc.org
