Tropical cyclone Chido struck Mayotte on 14 December 2023, with winds over 200 km/h, causing severe damage and loss of life. It was the most vigorous storm to hit the island in 90 years. While timely warnings were issued, many informal structures could not withstand the cyclone’s intensity. The cyclone later impacted Mozambique and Malawi, raising concerns about climate change but lacking clear evidence of its influence on this extreme weather event.
Tropical cyclone Chido struck Mayotte on 14 December 2023 with unprecedented intensity, registering wind speeds exceeding 200 km/h and gusts over 225 km/h. This cyclone is noted as the most powerful storm to impact Mayotte in 90 years, as reported by Météo-France. Alongside the high winds, the cyclone unleashed torrential rains, with 176 mm recorded within 12 hours, and generated dangerously high waves, averaging more than 5 meters. The cyclone’s ferocity was such that it caused destruction to Météo-France’s observational infrastructure.
In response to the disaster, French President Emmanuel Macron declared a national mourning period. Emergency and relief efforts were swiftly mobilized, especially after early assessments suggested that hundreds might have perished due to the cyclone’s impact on the small island, which is not accustomed to such severe tropical storms and houses many informal dwellings. Remarkably, despite Météo-France’s timely and accurate warnings issued over 50 hours prior, the loss of life was substantial. An amber alert was announced on 13 December at 7 a.m. local time, followed by a red alert later that evening, which escalated to a rarely invoked violet alert on the morning of 14 December.
Cyclone Chido followed an unusual trajectory, passing close to Madagascar, which could have otherwise diminished its strength. Instead, it struck Mayotte with full force, engulfing the island entirely in its eye. After making landfall on Mayotte, the cyclone continued its path toward Mozambique on 15 December as it began to weaken, bringing heavy rainfall to both Mozambique and Malawi.
Météo-France acknowledged that the implications of climate change on this cyclone remain ambiguous. In a statement, Météo-France outlined, “The impacts of Chido are above all due to its track and the direct hit on Mayotte. This is an extremely rare event not seen for 90 years.” They noted that current knowledge does not suffice to confidently assess climate change’s involvement in the cyclone’s trajectory or intensity.
Furthermore, Météo-France La Réunion functions as the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for tropical cyclones in the South-West Indian Ocean. On 31 October 2023, the RSMC’s seasonal forecast had predicted an early commencement of the cyclone season for 2024-2025. Unlike previous years, where the first tropical systems struck in January, this outlook suggested that such conditions could appear before the end of 2024. The upcoming cyclone season is anticipated to reflect near normal to above normal activity, forecasting 9 to 13 systems, with 4 to 7 projected to reach tropical cyclone status.
This article focuses on the impact of tropical cyclone Chido, which struck Mayotte, a small island in the Indian Ocean, with exceptional force. The cyclone’s unprecedented wind speeds and the resulting destruction highlight both the vulnerability of the island to such natural disasters and the importance of meteorological predictions. This event underscores a significant case study in assessing tropical cyclone patterns and potential climate change influences in the region, especially considering the rare occurrence of such intense storms in Mayotte’s recorded history. Moreover, it reflects the increasing scrutiny on regional weather forecasting and disaster preparedness in the face of climate uncertainties.
In summary, tropical cyclone Chido has had a catastrophic impact on Mayotte, characterized by unprecedented wind speeds and substantial rainfall, resulting in considerable loss of life and damage. Despite timely warnings from meteorological authorities, the island’s lack of preparedness for such a storm contributed to the tragedy. This event raises important questions regarding the influence of climate change on cyclone behavior and reinforces the need for robust emergency management systems in vulnerable regions of the world. The forthcoming cyclone season predictions suggest a need for heightened vigilance and readiness in dealing with potential disasters.
Original Source: wmo.int
