Turkey is at a critical crossroads regarding its strategy in Syria, facing military stalemates and external pressures. Ankara is considering engaging with the Syrian regime to address the growing influence of the YPG and the PKK. The proposal for Abdullah Ocalan’s potential engagement with parliament suggests a shift in handling the Kurdish issue. Complicating these efforts are US opposition, Russian military backing for local forces, and regional tensions which continue to challenge Turkey’s security calculus.
Turkey’s strategy concerning Syria is at a pivotal point due to various competing pressures, including military stalemates, Russian and US opposition, and economic factors. Ankara is now exploring political prospects, which might necessitate a reevaluation of its approach toward Kurdish forces. Turkey’s strategy involves balancing complex relations, engaging with the Assad administration to neutralize the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and contemplating Abdullah Ocalan’s potential engagement with Turkish parliament to signal a possible cessation of PKK hostilities.
Since 2015, Turkey’s operations have aimed to secure its borders, thwarting PKK-affiliated YPG elements. Past military campaigns sought to establish a safe zone, but an agreement between the SDF and the Syrian regime backed by Russia has thwarted Turkey’s objectives. Despite numerous attempts for cross-border military action, Russian military and diplomatic maneuvers have repeatedly obstructed Turkey’s militaristic ambitions in Syria.
Turkey’s situation is exacerbated by the US’s firm support for the SDF in the fight against ISIS, leading to heightened tensions between Ankara and Washington. The US government has threatened sanctions against Turkey, complicating Turkey’s military options and increasing domestic political pressure to prevent further escalations.
Amidst these challenges, Turkey’s recent overtures to engage with Bashar al-Assad represent a strategic shift from previous hostilities. Though high-level discussions have taken place, they have not yielded substantial advancements. The objective seems to center on forming a united front against the YPG while expressing Turkey’s apprehensions regarding potential Kurdish autonomy along its borders.
The apprehension towards any US-backed Kurdish entity has been labeled by Turkish officials as a looming “Terroristan,” capable of destabilizing Turkey internally. Complicating matters is Turkey’s fear of conflicts involving Israel and Iran, which could spill over into Syria and disrupt its borders. Furthermore, the prospect of a humanitarian crisis following an increase in hostilities in Lebanon poses additional concerns for Turkey’s border security.
In a notable commentary, Devlet Bahceli, head of Turkey’s Nationalist Movement Party, proposed that Abdullah Ocalan could address parliament if he formally ends the PKK’s armed resistance. This unexpected move could serve as a potential leverage for Turkey in resolving the Syrian quagmire. However, Erdogan’s muted initial reaction raises questions about the feasibility of this initiative and its actual influence on the ongoing Kurdish issue.
In summary, Turkey’s strategy regarding Syria is multifaceted and marked by an intricate dance between military action and political dialogue. The challenges posed by external powers and internal dynamics render any prospective resolution tenuous. Moreover, aligning US and Turkish interests offers a slim avenue for modifying the contentious landscape, but it remains imperative for the US to maintain an impartial stance to avoid further complicating relations with Turkey.
Turkey has been embroiled in the Syrian conflict since its inception, primarily driven by concerns over its borders and security from PKK-affiliated groups. Military actions, particularly against the YPG-led SDF, have dominated Ankara’s strategy. However, changing geopolitical dynamics, including Russian military support for the SDF, US opposition to Turkish operations, and the potential establishment of a Kurdish state, have compelled Turkey to reconsider its approach. Recent dialogues with Syria represent a strategic pivot seeking to balance both security and political dynamics in an increasingly complex regional context.
Turkey’s search for resolution in Syria remains fraught with challenges stemming from military opposition, regional dynamics, and the balancing of Kurdish policy. The objective now appears to be fostering dialogue with the Assad regime and exploring new avenues to mitigate threats while recalibrating its approach to Kurdish forces through political means. Strengthened cooperation with the US, while navigating the complexities of the Kurdish predicament, could potentially ease tensions surrounding the region and stabilize Turkey’s border security.
Original Source: www.atlanticcouncil.org
