Turkey has rapidly expanded its influence in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The visit of spy chief Ibrahim Kalin to Damascus marked a significant shift, as Ankara navigates its relationships with local factions and asserts itself in reconstruction plans. Turkish-backed forces are gaining territory in northern Syria, intertwining the fates of Turkey and various Syrian groups as the political landscape evolves.
In the wake of the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Turkey has swiftly solidified its presence in Syria, exemplified by the raising of its flag over the embassy in Damascus less than a week after the regime’s collapse. This significant moment followed the visit of Turkey’s spy chief, Ibrahim Kalin, who met with the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) while also notably praying at the Umayyad mosque. Analysts, including Dareen Khalifa of the International Crisis Group, have interpreted Kalin’s visit as a strategic triumph for Ankara, reflecting Turkey’s advantageous position in the evolving power dynamics in Syria.
Turkey’s previous restraint regarding HTS and efforts to engage with Russian and Iranian officials illustrate a calculated approach aimed at influencing the outcome in Syria. Despite President Erdoğan’s offers for discussions being rebuffed, Turkey’s stance shifted dramatically once it became clear that Assad’s military actions would continue unabated. This led to Turkey allowing HTS to launch its offensive, an action that ultimately contributed to the unexpected rapid advances of the insurgents, marking what Gönül Tol of the Middle East Institute terms a “catastrophic success” for Turkey.
Domestically, Erdoğan has strategically managed the issue of Syrian refugees, positioning himself as a protector of displaced Syrians while satisfying nationalist sentiments calling for repatriation. The regime change has provided Erdoğan with renewed opportunities to enhance his political standing in Turkey as he emphasizes a balance between humanitarian support and national interest. Meanwhile, Turkish officials are already discussing the return of refugees and participating in plans for Syria’s reconstruction.
In the ensuing chaos, Turkish-backed forces have begun encroaching on areas previously under the control of U.S.-backed Kurdish groups, capitalizing on the disarray to expand their influence in northern Syria. Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s Foreign Minister, has made clear that Turkey supports Kurdish representation in the new Syrian government but remains firm against any independent Kurdish governance.
The shift in Syria’s power structure post-Assad not only grants Turkey significant leverage but also reinforces HTS’s reliance on Turkey for support in the face of international isolation. Turkey’s role in investment and reconstruction, coupled with its influence over HTS, signifies that Ankara aims to consolidate its interests in a reshaping Syria. Through strategic engagements, Ankara has positioned itself as a pivotal player in determining the future political landscape of Syria.
The article discusses Turkey’s evolving role in Syria following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad, highlighting how Turkey, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has taken advantage of the power void. Turkey’s relationship with various factions, notably HTS, showcases its strategic maneuvers within the changing political dynamics. The implications of these changes extend beyond Syria, affecting Turkey’s domestic policies regarding Syrian refugees, as well as its geopolitical stance in the region.
In conclusion, Turkey’s actions following the downfall of Assad underscore its strategic foresight and adaptability in foreign policy. By establishing a foothold in Syria and engaging with key factions such as HTS, Turkey has solidified its influence in the region while simultaneously addressing domestic concerns related to Syrian refugees. The outcome of these maneuvers remains pivotal for both Syria’s future and Turkey’s geopolitical aspirations.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
