On December 14, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Chido struck Mayotte, registering winds over 200 km/h, causing extensive damage and significant loss of life despite prior warnings. The cyclone also impacted Mozambique, leading to heavy rainfall. Météo-France emphasized the rarity of such cyclones in the region and the unclear influence of climate change on Chido’s intensity.
On December 14, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Chido struck Mayotte with devastating force, registering winds exceeding 200 kilometers per hour and gusts surpassing 225 kilometers per hour, making it the most powerful storm to impact the island in nearly a century. Accompanied by torrential rainfalls totaling 176 mm in a mere 12 hours and exceptionally high waves averaging over 5 meters, the cyclone resulted in extensive destruction, including damage to Météo-France’s meteorological structures.
In response to the disaster, French President Emmanuel Macron declared a national mourning period. Emergency relief efforts were urgently mobilized amid warnings that hundreds may have perished, particularly due to the prevalence of informal housing on the island, which is ill-prepared for such severe weather events. Despite warnings issued by Météo-France more than 50 hours ahead—including an amber alert on December 13, escalating to a rare violet alert shortly before landfall—the death toll was tragically high.
Cyclone Chido followed an atypical trajectory, circumventing the larger island of Madagascar, which might have otherwise diminished its strength. Instead, it made a direct hit on Mayotte, enveloping the island entirely within its eye. Following its impact on Mayotte, Chido made landfall in Mozambique on December 15, where it continued to produce heavy rainfall affecting both Mozambique and Malawi.
Météo-France noted the ambiguous role of climate change in this cyclone’s behavior, stating, “Our current state of knowledge does not allow us to draw any conclusions about the role of climate change on the track of the cyclone and on its intensity.” Additionally, Météo-France La Réunion functions as the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Tropical Cyclones in the Southwest Indian Ocean, which had earlier predicted an earlier-than-usual onset for the 2024-2025 cyclone season, forecasting normal to above-normal activity, including multiple potential tropical cyclones.
Tropical Cyclone Chido, which struck Mayotte on December 14, 2023, highlights the increasing vulnerability of island communities to extreme weather events, particularly in areas that traditionally do not experience such intensity. Cyclones are common in the Indian Ocean, yet Mayotte—a small island—has not faced a cyclone of this magnitude in over 90 years. Understanding the factors that influence cyclone formation, including the potential impacts of climate change, remains crucial for developing effective response strategies and early warning systems. Météo-France plays a vital role in monitoring and predicting the cyclone season, with recent seasonal forecasts indicating the likelihood of increased cyclone activity in the upcoming years.
Tropical Cyclone Chido’s unprecedented impact on Mayotte underscores the urgent need for enhanced disaster preparedness in regions prone to extreme weather. Despite the advanced warnings issued by meteorological agencies, the toll on human life and infrastructure demonstrates the islands’ challenge of coping with such severe storms. Moving forward, understanding the intersection of climate change and cyclone activity will be essential in mitigating future risks and ensuring the safety of vulnerable communities.
Original Source: wmo.int
