The fall of Bashar al-Assad enhances Turkey’s regional influence yet presents strategic challenges for President Erdogan. With Turkey’s military involvement in the Syrian conflict and focus on limiting Kurdish control along its border, Erdogan must also navigate the complexities of Syrian refugee repatriation and relations with Russia moving forward.
The recent overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria marks a pivotal shift in regional dynamics, significantly enhancing Turkey’s strategic role in the area. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, having extended an olive branch to Assad that was rebuffed, finds himself at a crossroads as the implications of this development unfold. As the conflict escalates, Erdogan’s focus has increasingly turned towards consolidating Turkish influence, particularly concerning the Kurdish populations along the border.
Turkey’s military presence in Idlib province, approximately 15,000 troops strong since 2017, has facilitated close coordination with rebel groups, notably Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), enabling a rapid offensive against Assad’s regime. The Syrian National Army, supported by Turkey, has aligned with HTS to capitalize on the advantageous circumstances presented by Assad’s downfall.
A significant aspect of Erdogan’s agenda is the containment of Kurdish forces, especially the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara views as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a designated terrorist organization. The recent capture of Manbij signifies Turkey’s next strategic move, harnessing the current chaos to attempt to establish a secure zone devoid of Kurdish influence.
The fate of Syrian refugees, whose numbers exceed three million in Turkey, poses another pressing dilemma for Erdogan. Although many refugees express a desire to return, instability in Syria may deter their immediate repatriation. Erdogan seeks to mitigate domestic political pressures by facilitating the return of as many refugees as possible, mindful of the complexities surrounding their repatriation.
Turkey’s relations with Russia also warrant attention, as Erdogan attempts to reconcile with Assad, despite Assad’s historical resistance to such overtures. While Turkey and Russia have coordinated to a degree, the changing landscape necessitates a reevaluation of their alliance, particularly regarding Russian military presence in Syria post-Assad.
In conclusion, Turkey appears to emerge as a primary beneficiary in the wake of Assad’s fall, displaying its growing influence in the region. The subsequent actions of the new Syrian regime, particularly regarding the treatment of Kurdish groups and the prospect of a negotiated settlement, will largely dictate the future trajectory of both Turkish and regional stabilization efforts.
The geopolitical landscape of Syria has long been tumultuous, characterized by a brutal civil war and competing interests from various regional powers. Turkey has taken a proactive role due to its substantial border with Syria and its concerns regarding Kurdish militant groups. The fall of Assad presents both an opportunity and a challenge for Ankara, as President Erdogan maneuvers to shape the future of the region while managing the internal ramifications of Syrian refugee populations and Kurdish aspirations.
In summary, the removal of Bashar al-Assad from power underscores Turkey’s significant influence in the region while presenting Erdogan with a complex array of challenges. The future of Turkish-Syrian relations hinges on the new government’s strategies and decisions regarding Kurdish entities and the ongoing refugee crisis. As Turkey solidifies its position, the regional balance of power will likely continue to evolve amidst uncertainties.
Original Source: www.france24.com
