In the final Roanoke College Poll before the 2024 elections, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 10 points in Virginia, with 51% to 41%. In the Senate race, Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine is ahead of Republican challenger Hung Cao by 11 points. The poll reveals low undecided voter percentages and key issues influencing voters, including the economy and abortion, highlighting a dynamic electoral landscape as Election Day nears.
The latest Roanoke College Poll reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris possesses a substantial 10-point advantage over former President Donald Trump in the state of Virginia, with poll results showing Harris at 51% and Trump at 41%. Notably, independent candidate Cornel West and Libertarian Chase Oliver are each polling at 2%, while Jill Stein of the Green Party garners 1% of the vote. In the concurrent U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Senator Tim Kaine leads his Republican opponent Hung Cao by 11 points, with results reflecting 51% for Kaine and 40% for Cao. The data, gathered from 851 likely registered voters in Virginia between October 25 and October 29, 2024, showcases a margin of error of 4.6%. The poll indicates that there are very few undecided voters, with only 2% remaining unsure and another 2% inclined to support candidates not listed on the ballot. Additionally, nearly half of the respondents (47%) expressed that they are almost certain to vote, with 40% already having cast their ballots. Among those who have yet to vote, a significant majority (85%) exhibit certainty regarding their choices, with 66% describing their enthusiasm for voting as high. Key issues influencing voter sentiment include the economy, cited by 43% of participants, followed by abortion at 20% and immigration at 12%. In terms of issue trust, a majority of likely voters (57%) favor Harris over Trump concerning abortion, although voters appear split regarding other categories. Both candidates are viewed equally with respect to immigration (48% each), while Harris enjoys a slight edge regarding crime (49% to 45%) and foreign policy (also 49% to 45%), though Trump is seen as more competent regarding the economy (49% to 46%). When asked about the candidates’ perceptions concerning their understanding of the constituents’ needs, 46% of respondents believe that Harris shows a greater understanding and care, as compared to 37% for Trump. Voter opinions regarding the federal government’s impact are diverse, with 44% indicating that it worsens their lives while 40% believe it improves their circumstances. The evaluations of state and national direction reveal some stability in voter sentiment; 46% of respondents feel Virginia is heading in the right direction, while 64% think the nation is on the wrong track—a reduction from 71% in August. Job approval ratings for President Biden stand at 38%, reflecting a modest increase from earlier polling. Favorability ratings across federal officials show negativity, with Trump at 38% favorable versus 54% unfavorable, and Biden at 37% favorable compared to 50% unfavorable. Kamala Harris’ ratings have improved marginally to 45% favorable and 46% unfavorable, while Senator Tim Kaine maintains a more favorable rating at 39% favorable and 33% unfavorable. Hung Cao finds himself in slightly positive territory at 28% favorable and 24% unfavorable, although nearly half of respondents remain uncertain or uninformed regarding his candidacy. Dr. Harry Wilson, a senior political analyst for IPOR, noted that “Kamala Harris has increased the slim lead she held in the August Roanoke College Poll” and indicated that Democrats are benefitting from early voting while Republicans must mobilize substantial turnout on Election Day. Methodologically, the poll implemented a sampling approach combining telephone interviews alongside text outreach to ensure a diverse respondent pool, reflecting an array of regional representation throughout Virginia.
The November 2024 Roanoke College Poll serves as a significant pre-election indicator of voter sentiment in Virginia as the state approaches the crucial 2024 elections. Conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, the poll examines various races, notably the presidential election featuring Vice President Kamala Harris against former President Donald Trump, as well as the U.S. Senate contest involving incumbent Tim Kaine and challenger Hung Cao. Political analysts utilize such polls to infer broader trends, gauge public opinion on key issues, and predict potential electoral outcomes.
The Roanoke College Poll presents a clear picture of voter preferences in Virginia just days before the upcoming elections, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding a significant lead over former President Donald Trump. The findings highlight crucial issues for voters, particularly the economy and abortion rights, and indicate a growing support base for Harris among both Democrats and independents. As early voting gains traction among Democrats, the urgency for Republican mobilization becomes apparent, particularly with the low percentage of undecided voters. Overall, this poll serves as a vital tool for understanding electoral dynamics in Virginia leading up to the election.
Original Source: www.roanoke.edu
